January climate recap in Kansas City
Happy February Bloggers –
With January officially in the books I thought it would be a good time to look back and see how the month has progressed climatologically. It should come as no surprise that January 2023 was warm and wet. But I think many of you will be surprised how warm it really was, see for yourself!
KSHB
When it comes to our climate, we usually look at the mean (or average) temperatures when comparing statistics from year to year. So it’s safe to say that January was the 11th warmest in Kansas City history. This was the warmest January we’ve had since 2006. Even after our arctic cold front brought temperatures well below average to end the month, our average high, low, and average temperatures were all 6 or more degrees above normal for the month. That’s pretty significant.
As for the rain, well we were wet, just not white.
KSHB
While our snow is a bit behind compared to normal, it’s not too far off when compared to the past two winters. Think of it like comparing apples to oranges. Our normality does not take into account our climate, ie. La Niña-El Niño, Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, etc. But the only thing this winter has to offer is what we call “Triple La Niña”. This is a fairly rare event and the first time this century that we have seen a La Niña winter three years in a row.
So let’s talk apples to apples. How do we stack the last two La Niña winters? Well we’re about on the same page.
KSHB
One thing to note last winter and the year before – most of our snow came late. So does that mean we’re predicting late winter and spring snow? Not quite.
KSHB
La Niña is fading and we expect to switch to ENSO neutral in the February-April 2023 season. In a neutral state, our trade winds blow east-west across the Pacific Ocean, allowing warm, moist air and warmer water to hold over the western Pacific.
For Kansas City, that means we don’t have that extra drive for the cold, but we still hold on to that extra drive for the wet. So you’re saying there’s a chance? Well, not quite yet. We need the COLD!
While we’ve had our share of cold snaps, our base winter temperature has just been warm. A key to keeping an eye out for cold air is to keep an eye on the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AO pattern and our upper level being set across North America for the next two weeks favors normal to above average temperatures in the central and eastern US. So our warming trend seems to continue until mid-February.
But apples to apples again, late season snow is not out of the question, we just don’t see the potential in the forecast at the moment.
KSHB
So are warmer winters our new normal? Winter is getting warmer across the country — and it’s warming up fast. Climate change has started changing our seasons and this winter we are beginning to live in this new reality. In a recent study by Climate Central, the average winter temperature in Kansas City has increased 3.7°C since 1970, and this is right in line with our January warmth.
KSHB – climate control center
In your study They found:
- Winters Are Getting Warmer Everywhere: Winters have warmed in 97% of the 238 US locations since 1970.
- Winter is Warming Fast: For 75% of these locations, winter was the season with the fastest warming.
- About 80% of locations now have at least seven more winter days than in 1970.
- In our warming world, the coldest days are not as cold and cold snaps are decreasing.
- Warming winters affect public health, water supplies, agriculture and recreation.
- Warmer temperatures can make winter storms with sleet and freezing rain more dangerous.
So we have the warm and can hold on to the wet. when will we see white That’s still in the stars, but my hope for more snow in late winter and early spring isn’t entirely lost. Stay tuned!
